Publications

Format: Nov 2017
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Sector(s) Datesort ascending
Sogecable

The long drawn out merger between the two Spanish pay-TV operators will finally be consummated in the next few weeks. As we have seen elsewhere in Europe, competition in pay-TV produces little but red ink. Investors will be pleased that Sogecable and Via Digital are finally combining. We have little doubt that this merger will eventually produce a profitable and successful business. But management appears too optimistic about the likely continuing cash drains as operations are combined and costs reduced over the next two years.

  • Sogecable
Media 1 June 2003
Digital Music Downloading

It was just like the old days. Apple started an online music service, which was immediately well received. Steve Jobs proclaimed loudly that the world would never be the same. Investment banks rushed to assert that digital downloading would save the music companies. Truly gargantuan estimates were made of the potential revenue streams. This note looks at the i-Tunes phenomenon.

Media 22 May 2003
UK Broadband and Internet Trends Q1 2003

Part of our regular series on the UK broadband and Internet markets, this note highlights the shifting fortunes of ISPs and cable operators in competing against BT brands on the fast growing residential broadband market.

Media, Telecoms 20 May 2003
BT's Residential Tariff Increase

On June 1st BT is launching a radically new pricing structure for its 10m BT Together customers, dropping the distinction between local and long distance calls, and introducing a flat rate 6p for off-peak calls of up to an hour. In this report we look at the impact of these changes on BT, its customers and its competitors.

  • BT
  • Yahoo
Telecoms 14 May 2003
The Digital Bomb III

Digital Bomb lll is our third annual assessment of the global market for digital set-top boxes and associated hardware. So far, our forecasts have been accurate and we continue to see relatively slow growth in the next few years.

Media 8 May 2003
Freeserve versus Oftel

Last week’s decision from the Competition Appeal Tribunal was seen as a victory for Freeserve over BT. Does this mean Oftel will have to use a different approach to regulation? Does the decision herald a new era in the regulation of the telecommunications and media industries in the UK? We think not.

Media 24 April 2003
The Services from '3'

Perhaps inevitably, ‘3’ opened for business before it was really ready. As a result, its services are patchy and unreliable. Some of these problems will be overcome in the next few weeks. Others will be more intractable. Overall, we can see some potential in 3G style services, but ‘3’ is far from being a competitor to existing 2G offerings.

  • Hutchison 3G
Telecoms 15 April 2003
Vivendi Universal

Vivendi's only agenda at this time is to effect a disposal of its non-core assets for the best price to reduce debt to manageable levels. This note casts a critical eye on prospects for sale of USA Networks (good), Universal Studios (poor) and VU Games (good), as well as the disposal and valuations for other assets such as Universal Music, Groupe Canal+ and Cegetel/SFR.

Media, Telecoms 13 April 2003
'3' and 3G

With the handsets finally available and (to some extent) working, Hutchison 3G's '3' operation has finally launched in the UK. In this report we review the commercial prospects for '3' in particular and 3G in general.

 

 

 

  • Hutchison 3G
Telecoms, Mobile 8 April 2003
Wanadoo FY 2002 Results

Wanadoo reached an important milestone in 2002, reporting its first (very small) positive EBITDA margin on its French Internet business, thanks to broadband-related revenue increases and lower narrowband and broadband access costs. In contrast, losses widened at Wanadoo's Internet properties outside France, in particular Freeserve in the UK and Eresmas is Spain, but these were more than fully offset by profits on the Directories segment. This note looks ahead to 2003, when Wanadoo expects to reach positive EBITDA on the Internet segment as a whole, thanks to continued improvement in France and tightly contained losses at Freeserve and Eresmas.

  • France Telecom
Media 3 April 2003
Sony vs. Xbox Live

The recent launch of online gaming from the major games consoles makers has focused attention again on the future of Xbox. Will the online version, Xbox Live, enable Microsoft to improve its position versus Sony? Our view is that Sony’s dominance of this generation of consoles will continue.

Media 28 March 2003
Piracy

The troubles of the global music industry are usually assumed to derive from the growth of piracy. This report argues that physical piracy is probably no more of a problem than it has been in the recent past. Digital piracy is indeed becoming more important, but still is by no means the only explanation of declining music sales.

Media 18 March 2003
Churn

Little research has been done into why consumers move from one supplier to another. Churn, as this phenomenon is known, is much discussed but little understood. We carried out some research to show what types of people churn, why they do it, and whether it is an outcome of a certain type of personality.

Telecoms 7 March 2003
Camera Phones & MMS in 2003

In this report we look at the sales and usage of camera phones in Europe, and estimate future sales based in part on the results of our regular survey of UK mobile users. As a consequence of these findings, we have downgraded our forecast of UK MMS revenues.

 

 

 

Telecoms, Mobile 5 March 2003
Fixed Line Telecoms

In this report we look at three regulatory initiatives to increase competitors access to the 'last mile' of incumbent monopolists: CPS and WLR in the UK, and UNE-P in the US. BT's market shares losses have accelerated in the business market due to CPS; we ask whether this will continue, whether it will happen in the residential market, and whether WLR will have an even worse effect.

Fixed Line 28 February 2003
UK TV Viewing Trends (Issue 4)

This issue of our regular report on TV trends in the UK looks at pay-TV subscriber numbers, the position of Freeview, and the impact of the huge expansion in the number of digital channels. Our analysis tries to clear away the fog produced by problems with BARB data over the past year.

Media 24 February 2003
UK Broadband & Internet Trends Q4 2002

BT will be announcing tomorrow its latest results on meeting the target of 1 million broadband connections by H1 2003. Some difficulty could be anticipated from the slow monthly pace of connections in H2 2002, mainly due to disappointing take-up of the revolutionary ISP-less BT Broadband product (as we had anticipated), despite high levels of marketing investment.

Media, Telecoms 12 February 2003
The ITV Merger

The public debate about the ITV merger has revolved around whether the maintenance of two separate sales houses is the appropriate remedy to be imposed by any Competition Commission inquiry. We argue that the real issues are more complex.

  • ITV
Media 11 February 2003
SMS TV

Interactivity via the TV set was one of the most misguided bubbles of the late 1990s. Fancy software and mini keyboards were supposed to provide a replacement for the PC. As matters have turned out, the use of SMS to accompany TV programmes is the means by which new technologies provide a limited form of interactivity to viewers.

Media 31 January 2003
Canal+ vs. TPS

On 23 January, the French Competition Council dealt what is likely to be a deathblow to the ambitions of Canal+ Group to obtain exclusive rights to French Premier League football events. The Competition Council ruled in favour of TPS and ordered the 2002 competition suspended pending delivery of its final ruling.

  • Canal Plus
Media 30 January 2003

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