Publications

Format: Apr 2018
Sector(s) Datesort ascending
Poor ratings exacerbate commercial radio woes

The latest RAJAR radio data (Q2 2006) delivered further bad news to the commercial radio sector, whose audience share has fallen year-on-year in all but four quarters of the last eight years to the benefit of the BBC. Commercial stations’ share of listening has dropped from a peak of 51% in Q2 1998 to below 43% this year, a level last witnessed in 1993. In the intervening thirteen years, commercial radio has launched one national and 124 local analogue stations, as well as 163 digital stations, although this unprecedented growth in supply has apparently failed to stimulate any long-term gains in share.

Market leaders Orange and Free increased their DSL retail market shares, while (newly IPOed) Neuf just managed to hold its retail market share (including AOL FR), while that of smaller ISPs (as a group) declined

Media 13 August 2006
BT FY 2006-07 Q1 results: revenue growth looking more vulnerable but overall performance continuing to improve

Group revenue growth remains positive, but intensifying competition in residential services and the absence of further big wins in corporate contracts mean that it looks more vulnerable than it has for some time 

  • BT
Telecoms 27 July 2006
UK Mobile Consumer Trends

In the attached report we are publishing the 2006 edition of our regular review of UK mobile user trends, based on a survey of 1,000 adults. We look at handset ownership, replacement trends, handset manufacturer choice, network operator choice, camera phone ownership and usage, 3G handset ownership and usage and, finally, interest in Mobile TV.

We cannot see how Phones4U can fulfil the volume requirements without significant damage to its business and competitiveness, and Vodafone may also suffer from a vengeful CPW encouraging its subscribers to churn away. Vodafone appears to not understand that it is its competitors that are driving up subsidies rather than its business partners, and is instead trying to shoot the messenger

CPW has less to lose from the weakest two operators leaving than one might think, and the continued lack of differentiation from the operators means that its core business model is still very much secure

Telecoms 27 July 2006
Vodafone June quarter KPIs: excuses, excuses…

Vodafone blamed a harsh competitive environment and the timing of Easter for its low revenue growth in core markets reported this week. Its growth did at least not decline again, although we expect that Vodafone will again prove to be underperforming its competitors as they report their figures over the coming weeks 

CPW will also benefit from its partnership with AOL for portal advertising, content and other internet-based applications, relatively small but fast-growing value-added services in which CPW has little experience or market position, which will prove important in terms of both customer retention and margins.

  • Vodafone
Telecoms 25 July 2006
Sky Broadband: All power to the portal

True to pre-launch speculation, BSkyB has entered broadband with a price-cutting bang that will have sent tremors round the rest of the industry.

  • Sky
Telecoms, Media 20 July 2006
AOL UK internet access sale

AOL UK offers buyers of its internet access business the prospect of instant scale in broadband, enabling 1,000 exchanges to be unbundled on a shared LLU basis. However, it has relatively few of the telephony customers which are necessary to exploit full LLU 

Media, Telecoms 16 July 2006
Sogecable and the Spanish game of football bluff

Spain’s top football club FC Barcelona (Barça) has threatened to withdraw its broadcast licence from Sogecable unless it matches an offer from Mediapro that is almost double the current annual fee for the two football seasons commencing 2006/2007 

The present TV advertising slump appears due to a uniquely British combination of very rapid digital TV growth and singular advertising airtime regulations that include the Contract Rights Renewal (CRR) remedy 

  • Sogecable
Telecoms, Media 16 July 2006
UK Cable Prospects

The UK market for fixed line telecoms services is undergoing huge change. Local loop unbundling is increasing price erosion in both broadband and telephony. BSkyB, BT and Orange are all planning to launch video services provided over DSL. Fixed line players unable to offer more than one service over the same network infrastructure are up for sale.

The cuts are not as bad as many had feared, and the impact on service revenue for the GSM operators will be de minimus: less than 1% at worst and a probable positive impact for O2, depending on the future level of RPI inflation. The impact will be far worse for H3G and reduce growth by about 3-4% each year until 2010/2011 

Telecoms, Media 6 July 2006
A busy week in UK broadband

BT’s launch of ‘Total Broadband’ represents a timely improvement in the value proposition for BT’s residential broadband customers but its impact will depend crucially on the success of BT Vision and other related services yet to be launched 

Telecoms 21 June 2006
ITV1 NAR plunge in 2006

ITV plc national advertising revenues (NAR) from ITV1 fell by £50 million in 2005. This was caused chiefly by a loss of more than 6% in weighted share of commercial impacts in 2004, which enables a proportionately similar reduction in 2005 ITV1 NAR under the CRR remedy. It was offset by total TV NAR growth of about 2.5% in 2005 

BT is clearly positioning its new, 21CN-based wholesale services as an economically viable alternative to both DIY and wholesale LLU 

  • ITV
Media 18 June 2006
New media and creative industries

Here are the main points of the evidence I gave on 9 May 2006 before the House of Commons Select Committee for Culture, Media & Sport joint meeting with Trade and Industry Committee. I was questioned by the chairman, John Whittingdale MP OBE, and committee members, John Price MP and Helen Southworth MP.

Pipex’s strategy is sophisticated, but its success depends to a large extent on implementation problems at Carphone Warehouse and Tiscali 

Media 13 June 2006
Orange and Wanadoo in the UK: a match made in France?

Orange’s new ‘free broadband’ offer brings savings of up to 60% for Orange UK customers who pay for broadband, and may appeal to a great many of them 

  • France Telecom
  • Orange
Telecoms 12 June 2006
Canal+ outlook for sub growth

Vivendi Q1 2006 quarterly results show solid underlying improvement in earnings, but disappointing subscription figures, which fell by 40,000 in the quarter 

We regard meeting even this extended deadline as difficult given their slowing growth, churn problems and the increasing network costs associated with their network outsourcing deals, and furthermore EBITDA is unlikely to improve significantly from 2007 onwards 

  • Canal Plus
Media 12 June 2006
Fastweb model under strain

Q1 2006 results show strong subscriber growth due to an enlarged LLU footprint and to promotions 

Telecoms 7 June 2006
Vodafone results: diverting to fixed line?

Vodafone's performance in its core European markets is continuing to worsen in both absolute terms and in relation to its competitors, and its margin progression is weak 

There is little evidence of a revenue meltdown

  • Vodafone
Telecoms 31 May 2006
Cable & Wireless annual results ending 31st March 2006

International subsidiaries continue to perform solidly 

  • Cable & Wireless
Telecoms 30 May 2006
Sky Italia and the broadband question

Positive Q3 FY 2006 results and the announcement of a possible flotation have raised speculation that Sky Italia may be gearing itself up to follow BSkyB’s entry into broadband 

  • Sky Italia
Media 29 May 2006
Eircom

The directors of Eircom, the Irish incumbent, have recommended acceptance of a joint offer from Babcock and Brown Capital and the Eircom Employee Share Ownership Trust 

But BT’s cost performance is improving. Group EBITDA growth has accelerated whilst capital expenditure has been held steady, increasing cash flow (EBITDA minus capital expenditure) 

Telecoms 29 May 2006
BT FY 2005-06 Q4 results

BT is continuing to grow revenue in spite of increasing competition in the residential market

  • BT
Telecoms 21 May 2006
Versatel - Football-driven LLU?

The experience of Versatel (now owned by Tele2) in The Netherlands provides a cautionary tale for new entrant altnets hoping to use premium content to gain broadband market share in a well-contested and maturing broadband market (58% household penetration). In late 2004,Versatel was the surprise winner of the 2000-2008 broadcast licence for the domestic football league Eredivisie (carried only by Versatel and licensed to satellite TV), but Versatel's broadband market share and that of other unbundlers fell in 2005 while those of incumbent KPN (operating under three brands) and cable rose.

We welcome that the company appears to be de-emphasising 3G, with SACs reduced and 3G as a percentage of handset sales dropping from 20% to 12%. Unfortunately, just as Vodafone is recovering from the 3G industry fad, it seems keen to get distracted by another – convergence 

Telecoms 16 May 2006

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