Looking at the UK PSBs alone, a Sky/ITV tie-up would control an estimated 70% of the market, creating significant distance between it and fellow commercial PSB Channel 4. However, when considering the wider video ad market, including Meta, YouTube, Netflix and Amazon, the combined entity would be significantly smaller, with Enders Analysis estimating its market share at 30%.

“In this unchanged and tepid business climate, only rivalry between US streamers facing a mature market could fuel rights inflation,” Enders Analysis wrote in a note earlier this month. “But besides Amazon, none have demonstrated interest or capability to spend significantly in European sports rights.”

The latest annual report from analyst firm Enders Analysis – seen by ISPreview – has calculated that the UK’s largest alternative gigabit broadband networks (i.e. BT / Openreach challengers) collectively suffered losses of £1.5bn in 2024 (up from £1.304bn in 2023 and £755m in 2022) – driven by high interest rates and rising build costs. But it suggests that many may never make a profit.

“A return on this investment is very uncertain in Europe,” says Francois Godard, senior media and telecoms analyst of Enders Analysis. “They are trying to beef up Paramount+ but is this enough to make a difference? TNT was never profitable. They are close to break-even now but not profitable after 12 or 13 years, even with the Premier League and the initial backing of BT. It will be challenging.”

“TNT is in a black hole of uncertainty because who will buy Warner?” asks Godard. “If Warner is bought then a new owner will have to do something with TNT. Will they keep it? Will they sell it? TNT as a broadcaster only has one pack of Premier League games and that’s not viable. There are many layers of uncertainty.”

Aggregate losses amassed by the dozens of so-called altnets rolling out full-fibre networks across the UK hit £1.5 billion at the end of last year, up from £1.3 billion in 2023, according to the latest figures compiled by Enders Analysis. Financing and operating costs remain “stubbornly high” and most firms have struggled to achieve the scale required to generate a sufficient return.

“It’s difficult to see a scenario in which retail altnets generate cash returns, even before interest costs on their debt,” Karen Egan, head of telecoms at Enders Analysis, said.

François Godard, a senior media analyst for Enders Analysis, said: “Paradoxically, increased fragmentation of TV coverage leaves Sky in a stronger position. They have by far the biggest sports subscriber base and are in the unique position of creating ‘all-in-one’ bundles.”

“An increase of 25% would be a huge success in a market where domestic leagues have been struggling to generate even low one-figure percentage increases,” said François Godard, a media analyst at Enders Analysis.

The French group may even have managed to lower the price, which had reached €480 million for the current cycle. "Maxime Saada [the head of Canal+, editor's note] may have been bluffing when he said he was ready to lose the exclusive rights to the competition," analyzes François Godard, a sports rights specialist at Enders Analysis.

“For current subscribers, it’s not a disaster; they would have continued to get the majority of the matches. For new subscribers, it’s more difficult to recruit them,” explains François Godard. “It becomes confusing when several broadcasters are advertising the same competition.”

"The cited £2bn price tag sounds like an ask from the sellers rather than something that’s likely to be paid in anything like hard currency (equivalent to £700-900 per home passed depending on whether it includes Netomnia’s net debt)

We would be surprised if anyone pays more than £500 per home passed in cash. Nexfibre can build new fibre for that price, and overlay it’s cable network for £100 per home passed. With 50%+ overlap between Netomnia and Virgin Media O2/nexfibre, that points to a reasonable price of <£300 per home passed, or an overall price tag of less than £1bn

Enders Analysis has estimated that an ITV-Sky sales tie-up would hold just over 30% of the UK video ad market.

Overall, it calculated that tech giants Google, Meta and Amazon account for 55% of the total UK ad market but, narrowed down to just video, Sky Media and ITV Media would hold just over 30%, a share that would be “very likely to decline over time”.

A key test in this investigation, Enders projected, would be convincing the CMA that the relevant ad market in which ITV and Sky competes is broader than just the UK broadcasters.

It added: “It would be a missed opportunity for the CMA not to reconsider what the definition of the relevant advertising market may be, and whether some or all of advertising in other video should be included. 

“National broadcasters must grow in order to compete against the global tech streamers, including YouTube.”