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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

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Trump II is already proving to be a more serious threat to an independent, robust news media than Trump I.

Trump’s direct power around news media is limited, but the threat comes from an unprecedented politicisation of federal regulators, enforcement and procurement—to favour friends and punish enemies.

Opposition to Trump II is weaker and more divided than the broad ‘resistance’ to Trump I. Big tech companies are going for a close embrace, hoping to steer policy to their advantage—while others bend the knee to avoid punishment.

The United States’ America First policy rebalances the terms of trade with allies and the UK aims to secure an exemption to restore the status quo ante on tariffs

The UK is offering a deal to the United States on digital services sold in the UK that seems easier than a deal on US food products that do not meet UK regulations

The UK will have to give on the Digital Services Tax (DST) of 2% on “digital services revenues” (applied to Amazon, Apple, eBay, Meta, and Google) and soften the regulations and enforcement of Acts of Parliament  

 

“Other direct-from-China platforms will be impacted more than Amazon from the dual impact of tariffs and the end of the de minimis exemption,” said Claire Holubowskyj, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis. “This advantages Amazon by leveling out the other platforms’ price advantage, and shifting the momentum back towards Amazon’s USPs of fast delivery and enormously sticky Prime membership.”

Still, the key factor isn’t so much that Amazon can sell ads through their DSP, but rather that they have designed their platform to make advertising a necessary cost of doing business, added Holubowskyj. 

“The commodified nature of goods on the platform make advertising essential for visibility: pulling back on spend due to broader uncertainty simply isn’t an option for sellers that want to continue selling on Amazon,” she explained. “And selling elsewhere is a difficult proposition as most sellers have optimised for the platform and lack brand recognition.”

Netflix beat its own Q1 revenue and profit forecasts but an uneven outlook means that its previous 2025 projections (12-14% revenue growth with a 29% margin) remain relevant. The end of reporting of subscription numbers and ARPU means that there is less visibility on the success of advertising and its regions

UK programming is now the most efficient original content on Netflix—with a tough outlook for production, this is validation of the quality of the product produced in this country

The call for a streaming levy was badly timed with little interrogation of any consequences. Further, it fails to directly address a major problem: the declining consumption of British programming  

 

“The App Store aside, Apple’s other big services like Music, TV+ and Arcade are all smaller players in their sectors so you wouldn’t expect them to support a huge ads business even if ads were switched on,” said Jamie MacEwan, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis. “There have been reports of Apple considering an ads tier on Apple TV+, one benefit might be to extend the reach of the product and maintain its market relevance while plugging some of the content spend deficit, but this would still be a tiny player in the context of the US or UK TV advertising markets.”

 

"Being a broadcaster is a profession," insists François Godard, an analyst at Enders Analysis. "You have to set up a studio, recruit animators, create an efficient 4K broadcasting system, create a payment solution, find advertisers..."

"It is actually very difficult to build up a direct subscriber base and it would take the LFP several years," emphasizes François Godard.

"The League would then have to enter into contracts with telecom operators who have the leverage to sell subscriptions, but this would be done under conditions that would surely be unfavorable to the LFP, which is starting from scratch with this project," adds the expert, who is relatively pessimistic about the viability of this solution.

François Godard, an analyst with Enders Analysis, added that starting a channel from scratch was risky.

“If the league wanted to launch their own channel, I think it’s a dead end. You’ll end up doing contracts with Canal+ and DAZN to distribute it, so it’s back to square one,” he said. “And it’s not a business you’re good at as a league.”

Niamh Burns, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis, told The Media Leader that the latest Bellwether’s main media splits “encapsulate the theme that has characterised the last decade: online is growing (though modestly here) while everyone else is under pressure”.

She added: “This is a well-worn path for business as budgets are squeezed: a flight to direct-response channels, which offer more certainty in the short term.”