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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

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Rigorous Fearless Independent

With Paramount Skydance's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) closing today, attention will turn to the financial future of the combined entity

Its financial future comes down to three things: how much cash the business generates, what prior claims exist on that cash, and whether what remains can pay debt down faster than linear TV shrinks 

The bull case rests on linear decline attenuating, as $6bn of synergies and greater streaming scale lift earnings; otherwise cash generation alone is unlikely to deliver the headline deleveraging targets

“It’s probably the least bad deal for BT, because they were going to take some pain anyway,” said Karen Egan, head of telecoms at Enders Analysis. “They were going to lose wholesale revenues for a few months [and] they were going to have a bad debt for Openreach.”

“There’s now a question mark over whether BT is going to be able to stabilise that customer base,” Egan said. “I would say stabilising is a big challenge and they’re probably not going to be able to immediately.”

“BT’s a big group — they can find £50m, £100m down the back of the sofa here and there … You don’t have to cut that many costs in order to get [TalkTalk] to almost break even on an operating cashflow basis”, said Egan at Enders Analysis.

BT is buying TalkTalk as a buyer of last resort, given the chaos that would ensue with a disorderly shut down, and will face a regulatory clearance process that reflects this.

The acquisition will cost BT c.£400 million this financial year, and will be hard to
manage given the ongoing subscriber decline, with limited longer-term upside.
Damage limitation appears to be the main driver.

There is a limited impact on the rest of the market, with some opportunity to pick up
business, limited risk for CityFibre despite it supplying TalkTalk, but less choice for
some types of smaller broadband competitors.

 

With entry-level broadband prices in the UK standing between £20 and £25, an £11 surcharge would represent an increase of more than 50pc for some customers.

James Barford, at Enders Analysis, describes this as “quite a dramatic increase if you’re trying to spend as little money as possible”.

It’s not just young people, though. Older people who are marginal broadband users may choose to ditch their contracts and make do without.

Moreover, any decline in broadband take-up would result in what Barford brands a “doom loop”.

The TV star saw far ahead of others the dangers and risks posed to children by technology such as smartphones and the internet, according to friend and media executive Claire Enders. “She had a brilliant insight into the prevalence of abuse in an online world,” said Enders, who pointed to the introduction of the Online Safety Act in 2023 as a culmination of her campaigns over the decades. “She was able to galvanise people to act. She used her voice with utter conviction and effectiveness.”