Publications

Format: Dec 2018
Sector(s) Datesort descending
NTL Q2 results

NTL’s Q2 results were again adversely affected by merger-related costs

Google’s phenomenal ascent is built on its domination of search, now the main growth driver of online advertising and accounting for 59% of the UK internet ad market which we estimate will be worth £2 billion this year or about 13% of total ad spend

Telecoms 21 August 2006
UTV and SMG merger could revive commercial radio sector

The prospect of a merger between Scottish Media Group (SMG) and UTV (formerly Ulster Television) provides exactly the positive news the commercial radio sector needs at this time. The merger would bring together two national stations, Virgin Radio and TalkSport, under the same ownership, creating opportunities to increase these stations’ audiences, grow their revenue yields, and improve profitability whilst, at the same time, reducing operational costs by combining their management and sales functions.

  • SMG
Media 29 August 2006
H3G results: the lengthening path to profitability

H3G has extended its deadline for hitting EBITDA breakeven, with this now around 12 months later than its previous forecast, we believe due to management failing to understand the extent of its churn problem 

The Zune Marketplace is no match for the iTunes Store, with a smaller repertory of music and no video to supply the Zune, since Microsoft has announced it will soon sell video for the top-end Xbox 360, around which its ‘home-entertainment’ strategy is based

We figure the costs of switching to the Zune are low, but Microsoft will be lucky to sell 1 million Zunes in the Christmas quarter – if it does, revenue will rise by less than 1%, so the Zune is of limited interest, whether successful or not

  • Hutchison 3G
Telecoms 3 September 2006
European Mobile Revenue Growth – June 2006 quarter

In the attached slides, we examine the service revenue growth trends in the top five European mobile markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain) over the last six quarters (ending in the June 2006 quarter), focusing particularly on the latest trends. The analysis is based on the published results of the mobile operators, although we have had to make estimates where the operators have not reported recent figures (only Virgin Mobile), or their data is not complete or inconsistent. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request.

A merger would not be a panacea for either company and carries the risk of distracting them from more urgent issues, but closer collaboration, if well managed, could help both

Closer collaboration could help NTL address some of the issues of scale now facing Flextech and improve its ability to acquire premium content, whilst helping ITV to develop a more coherent new media strategy

Telecoms 5 September 2006
Pipex acquisition of Bulldog and Toucan, wholesale deal with Cable & Wireless

Pipex’s acquisition of the Bulldog and Toucan customer bases establishes it as a significant player in the UK residential telecoms market 

Counterbalancing the good news, churn stood at a record high in recent years of 11.8%, while ARPU grew by only £3 compared with Q1 2006 after discounting exceptional factors and changes in accounting policies. Multiroom growth has also slackened

High churn and weak ARPU growth suggest a steady spin-down among Sky movie subs, placing even greater importance on the long term success of Sky Broadband in revitalising subscriber growth and building margins

Telecoms 7 September 2006
Vodafone chooses wholesale broadband from BT

Vodafone is taking the first step in implementing its convergence strategy in the UK by buying broadband from BT Wholesale; while we believe the strategy is misguided, Vodafone’s approach is at least cautious 

The company is at least unlikely to be losing money on the product, and is perhaps just sensibly testing the water for positive consumer interest in a bundled package from Vodafone

We expect the water to be very cold - results from Orange, NTL and BT suggest continued very low consumer interest in fixed-mobile convergence, and we doubt that Vodafone will fare much better

  • Vodafone
Telecoms 14 September 2006
Iliad - Destiny

Iliad is among the very few European altnets that have made unbundling a profitable business, despite France's highly contested market for broadband. This report examines Iliad's current positioning in this market, and the development of the media side of the triple play to grow ARPU and differentiate the brand

  • Iliad
Fixed Line, Telecoms, Non-UK Telecoms 23 September 2006
UK termination rate cuts... and increases

Ofcom has reintroduced price reductions for UK mobile call termination charges, cutting 2G termination rates in real terms by between 6% and 16% over four years and introducing regulation for 3G call termination that will cut rates by almost 50% from current levels

Telecoms, Mobile 26 September 2006
CRR (Cash Withdrawal Machine)

Total TV advertising expenditure is expected to fall between 4% and 7% in 2006. ITV1 will suffer most, with a projected fall in NAR of around 13-14%, but the rest of the TV industry is also starting to feel the pain

  • ITV
Media, TV 27 September 2006
Canal+ Group after the merger

Ten years of fierce and implacable rivalry between Canal+ Group and TPS, the two French pay-TV operators, is expected to end in November 2006, when they close their merger deal and Canal+ France emerges. This report examines the strategic rationale for pay-TV consolidation in the French TV market, where digital terrestrial TV has recently launched and where TV-over-DSL is rapidly being deployed, as well as the potential for the currently low pay-TV margins to rise

  • Canal Plus
Media, TV, Non-UK Media 9 October 2006
The Carphone Warehouse's proposed acquisition of the AOL UK access business

The Carphone Warehouse (CPW)’s £370 million acquisition of AOL UK’s internet access business is set to quadruple the size of CPW’s UK broadband customer base, enabling it to become the third largest player in the market after NTL and BT, with approximately 2 million broadband subscribers

  • Carphone Warehouse
Telecoms, Fixed Line 11 October 2006
IPO of Neuf Cegetel

Neuf Cegetel will make an initial public offering (IPO) on Euronext Paris on 25th October. Proceeds of about €847 million are expected (if the ‘green shoe’ option is fully exercised and the price is set in the mid-range), of which about €250 million will be fresh money to finance the acquisition of AOL FR and other properties, and the rest mainly to founder Louis Dreyfus and exiting shareholder Suez. SFR (controlled 56/44 by Vivendi/Vodafone) will maintain its stake at 40.6%. The resulting float should be 20.3% of equity

  • SFR
Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms 11 October 2006
Vodafone drops Carphone Warehouse, but who will fall further?

In a fit of pique over increasing subsidies, Vodafone UK is dropping Carphone Warehouse (CPW) as a distributor, and moving exclusively to Phones4U with lower subsidy levels and volume guarantees, while Orange is reportedly also considering its position with CPW

  • Vodafone
  • Orange
  • Carphone Warehouse
Telecoms, Mobile 14 October 2006
UK Residential Broadband Market

This report examines recent developments in the UK residential market for broadband internet access. We consider past trends and the outlook over the next five years for the total market volume, market shares, prices and margins

Telecoms, Fixed Line 18 October 2006
French broadband market update

The level of net broadband additions in France declined in Q3 2006 to 539,000 net adds, down 8% on a year-over-year basis, as narrowband migration reaches completion due to exceptional levels of promotional activity induced by the ‘land grab’ for customers

Non-UK Telecoms, Fixed Line, Telecoms 30 October 2006
Orange UK: struggling to give convergence away for free

Orange UK’s converged mobile and broadband brands and ‘free’ broadband offer has not proved a big hit with consumers, with Orange reporting just 25,000 DSL net additions for the September quarter, likely to be below 5% market share

  • Orange
Telecoms, Mobile, Fixed Line 1 November 2006
Internet Advertising: you’ve been googled!

Last week Google hit the headlines on the back of forecasts for its UK revenues for 2006 which we expect to reach £920 million, up 90% on 2005, cited as proof of a structural shift away from broadcast media to the internet

  • Google
Media, Internet 7 November 2006
Classified Advertising in Print and Online

The UK newspaper industry is being engulfed by a 'perfect storm'. Overall advertising has been in a cyclical downturn since mid-2005, and public sector recruitment in particular has been weak, while readers desert newspapers (even free ones) for the internet, to which they are drawing spend on classified and display advertising. We view classified advertising in print media as being in permanent decline, anticipating an overall drop from £4 billion in 2006 to £3.5 billion by 2011

Media, Internet 9 November 2006
ITV/NTL - a possible combination transaction

Under mounting competitive pressure from Sky, NTL needs to reinforce its position in content and has approached ITV about a possible combination

  • Sky
  • ITV
TV, Media 10 November 2006
Microsoft’s Zune: credible or incredible competitor to Apple?

The Zune will compete with the iPod Video – but not the mini, nano or shuffle that have built Apple’s player market share. The Zune’s USP of Wi-Fi capability (to share tracks locally, not download) is just a gadget, not a must-have selling point

Media, Music and Radio 10 November 2006

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