Iliad FY 2008 headline KPIs and 4th 3G licence bid
In Q4 2008 Iliad added 100,000 subscribers in a slowing French broadband market
A restructured 4th 3G licence call for tender is now expected in March, with a cost of €206 million for a 2x5MHz spectrum block, which Iliad is expected to bid for
We remain sceptical that Iliad will earn a return from this, with the 3G-only business model challenging even with a reduced licence cost and restricted network rollout
|Non-UK Telecoms, Fixed Line, Telecoms||13 February 1009|
KPN fixed line recovery
KPN noticeably improved the performance of its domestic fixed line business in its full-year 2008 results, with revenues close to stabilising, and positive EBITDA growth of 1% indicating a turning point in the profitability of the Dutch division
Dutch broadband penetration is close to saturation, so KPN’s revenue growth potential will shift from broadband to adoption of next generation access services and subscriber upgrades to higher bandwidth and digital television
KPN, however, is taking a cautious path on NGA. FTTH deployment will depend on local conditions, notably availability of financing from landlords and municipalities, household density and average revenues. FTTC/VDSL is for areas where returns will be lower. ‘Mass market’ deployment will be decided in H2 2009 depending on consumer adoption
|Non-UK Telecoms, Fixed Line, Telecoms||11 February 1009|
UK broadband and telephony trends to March 2010
In this presentation we show our analysis of trends in UK broadband and telephony for the quarter to March 2010, based on the published results of the major service providers. We include our own estimates where reported data is incomplete.
Highlights in the quarter included a bounce in quarterly broadband market net additions sufficient to pause the historical decline in year-on-year subscriber growth, continuing relatively strong broadband subscriber growth at the major ISPs, stabilisation in both the level of telephony market revenue and the rate of growth in unbundled lines, and the soft launch of highly competitive bundled offers by Tesco.
|Fixed Line, Telecoms|
Media in an independent Scotland
Claire Enders set out the implications of a Yes vote in the Scottish independence referendum for the media available in Scotland. She critically examines the SNP's plans for a Scottish media, and argues that Scotland's small population would make an independent media hard to sustain. When the effect of a nationalist 'nation-building' project is factored in too, the overall results would be serious costs to the quality of democracy Scots enjoy.
|Mobile, Telecoms, Technology, Non-UK Media, Internet, Press, TV, Media|
European mobile in Q4 2014: The recovery continues
European mobile service revenue growth improved for a fourth consecutive quarter jumping 1.7ppts to -2.7%, the slowest rate of decline in over three years. Easing declines in France, Italy and Spain largely drove the improvement but a full recovery in these markets is still some way away given that all of their growth rates remain below -5%. The UK, and now Germany, are experiencing positive mobile service revenue growth although their improvements in the quarter were more modest
Three announced consolidation transactions have yet to be approved by the regulators although none of these deals are likely to offer much market repair, being either of the wrong kind of deal or being in markets that are growing. Consolidation targets remain in France, Italy and Spain which offer clearer routes to market recovery as seen in Germany where the consolidation of O2/E-Plus has already led to positive rhetoric on medium term market growth prospects
Network investment continues with 4G roll-outs at or over 70% population coverage in all markets and targets being accelerated, supporting long term optimism in the sector. Strong data traffic growth coupled with the growing importance of data to service revenue give a clear focus for operators on value-adding network quality investment, although the impact of pricing competition in some markets could weigh on the ability to capitalise on these trends in the medium term
|Non-UK Telecoms, Mobile, Telecoms|
From MCN to next generation media company – Part 1: Funding
Investment in YouTube multi-channel networks (MCNs) has accelerated this year and now exceeds $1.65 billion, triple the aggregate value invested to 2013. This step-up is being driven primarily by traditional media companies
Due to the growth of the overall online video sector, we expect to see continued demand for MCNs, as further opportunities for vertical, geographical and functional consolidation exist
While acquisition prices of close to $1 billion (incl. earn-outs) are high, valuation comparables seem relatively consistent and modest in comparison to other media/tech deals. Further, we see MCN investments as part of a wider shift as media companies extend their core business to digital
|Music and Radio, Internet, TV, Media|
YouTube and its MCNs: growth and variety
YouTube remains the dominant online video site globally, although competition for the viewer is growing from OTT video and other popular apps. Reach and consumption appear to be slowing in the US and the UK, but YouTube reports strong growth in global watch time as smartphone adoption proceeds
The number and variety of MCNs on YouTube continues to grow. Music video MCN Vevo has so far been the largest single presence on YouTube, but it is being overtaken by the combined Disney/Maker Studios MCN
In contrast to the aggregator MCNs with tens of thousands of channels, studio MCNs have much smaller network sizes and a higher share of owned channels. Their focus on content curation and creation has allowed some to build global audiences of repeat viewers, a unique strength and of significant appeal for advertisers
|Music and Radio, Internet, TV, Media|
Fine-tuning lessons from Sky Deutschland
Germany’s Sky platform has shifted focus from maximising net additions to improving quality of new recruits, delivering accelerated ARPU growth and a likely future reduction in churn.
In 2014, Sky will turn back to more proactive recruitment, but we caution against expectations of an improvement in the underlying trend growth rate.
Sky is in on course to deliver its first full year positive EBITDA in 2013, although we still don’t expect cash flow to follow suit before FY 2015.
|Non-UK Media, TV, Media|